It is impossible to participate in a telecommunications event in which digital inclusion is not mentioned as an objective of all market players. A laudable and necessary objective if one takes into consideration all the positive externalities that information and communication technologies (ICTs) entail when they reach sectors that previously did not have connectivity.
But not only with the coverage but with a broader plan that includes intangible elements such as applications, software, and training for teachers or others interested in using technology. It is for this reason that it is necessary to take a step back and analyze in greater depth what digital inclusion means and implies for the countries and territories of the Americas.
The concept of "digital inclusion" refers to the adoption of ICT by all strata of society, mainly to the population's ability to access high-speed broadband services.
Achieving this goal is not easy because it requires long-term strategic plans in which various entities will be listed as responsible for bringing connectivity to all localities in a country. In other words, the connectivity plans that are being formulated, focused on service coverage through affordable platforms for the population, focus on defining the alternatives available to achieve this goal.
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This last alternative, initially used by Chile, has been gaining supporters at the regional level and has been adapted to be incorporated into spectrum allocation processes in markets such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic.
Looking at the mobile world of this South American country, the first 4G auction of 2013 ordered the deployment of this technology in all the country's municipal capitals. Six years later, the MINT stated that 90% of population centers lacked this technology. For this reason, the second 4G auction held in 2019 aimed to boost 4G coverage in 5,766 population centers that until then lacked it.
However, a key element in the adoption of any mobile technology, such as 4G, is the availability of phones that support this technology. MINT figures show that at the end of 2020 Colombia had 67.7 million mobile service accesses, of which some 32.5 million accessed mobile broadband services and only 75% accessed 4G services. In other words, only 48% of the country's cell lines had access to mobile broadband services.
Estimates from the global consulting firm Counterpoint Research indicate that on average Colombians change their cell phone every 28 months. Perhaps for this reason, according to said consultancy, at the end of 2020, there were 29.6 million cell phones capable of connecting to a 4G network or 44% of all cell phones in operation.
More recent numbers from this consultancy indicate that the installed base of phones capable of connecting to 4G networks in Latin America at the end of 2020 was 55%, with preliminary estimates for the end of 2021 reaching 62%.
If we consider that according to the British consultant OMDIA, the number of mobile lines connected to people was 708 million at the end of 2020 and projected to reach 720 million at the end of 2021, it is possible to estimate that, even in the hypothetical case that all users are under the coverage of 4G and 5G networks, some 319 million users would not have been able to connect to them in 2020, reducing this number to 274 million at the end of 2021.
However, according to the Telecommunications Information Bank (BIT) of the Federal Institute of Telecommunications (IFT) of Mexico, it indicates that by the end of 2020 only 82.49% of active cell phones accessed mobile Internet services. The IFT, as do the vast majority of the planet's regulatory entities, still does not discriminate the type of mobile Internet that users can access, so an EDGE connection is counted in the same way as an LTE connection.
At first glance, these numbers do not seem serious, since we are barely talking about a gap of only 17% of the active cell lines in the country. Above all, if you are aware of the information published by The CIU, a consulting firm that estimates the cell phone replacement rate in Mexico in 24 months. This replacement will help so that by the end of 2021 the number of smart devices in the hands of Mexicans will reach some 122 million or 94% of the total in use, the vast majority of these new devices being able to connect to at least 4G networks.
The problem with considering aggregate figures is that they only present one side of the coin. If we look at the data published by the end of 2020 by the BIT, we find that the difference in percentage points in the penetration of the use of cellular service for voice versus its use for the Internet is 27 percentage points in the state of Chiapas, 23 in Oaxaca, 19 in Guerrero, 20 in Puebla and 22 in Zacatecas. So that there are no doubts, the figure that has the advantage is that of telephony.
There are many reasons for this disparity ranging, as seen in the Colombian example, from the lack of phones that can connect to more advanced networks to the purchasing power of the population. It is impossible to ask those who live in extreme poverty, a figure that has increased in Mexico by at least 10 percentage points in the past 18 months according to data from the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC), to increase monthly spending on telecommunications services or that they change their cell phone for a more modern one.
Why does all this explanation use two of the most important markets in Latin America as a base? Simple, promoting digital inclusion goes beyond the availability of service coverage, it also implies promoting accessibility through suitable devices.
Likewise, any digital inclusion strategy cannot be conceived as an isolated phenomenon that is only the responsibility of the authorities related to the ICT sector. A digital inclusion strategy will be successful when it is accompanied by schemes aimed at poverty reduction, expansion of civil infrastructure, and the establishment of schemes that facilitate the migration of users towards new mobile technologies under a long-term public policy, since the population's need for connectivity does not expire.
It is not enough that the coverage provides the service, there must be incentives for them to be contracted and used. Otherwise, any digital transformation scheme will drive a greater number of digital divides among the most vulnerable segments of the population.
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